GSA Contract Win Rates: What the Data Shows
Win rates on GSA Schedule task orders and delivery orders vary significantly by SIN, business size, and competitive approach. While no official "win rate" data is published for the Schedule program as a whole, industry experience and federal spending data provide a clear picture of where the competitive dynamics favor certain types of vendors.
Small Business Set-Aside Win Rates
Small businesses competing in set-aside pools — SDVOSB, WOSB, 8(a), HUBZone — face fewer competitors per RFQ than in unrestricted competitions. A set-aside pool of 20–50 qualified vendors responding to an RFQ is common. Win rates in specialized set-aside pools can approach 10–20% for well-positioned firms responding to relevant opportunities. Unrestricted Schedule competitions for larger requirements may have 50–150+ respondents, pushing win rates below 5% for average competitors.
What Drives Higher Win Rates
Data from federal contractors consistently shows three factors that most strongly predict win rate improvements: past agency relationship (prior contract with the ordering agency predicts repeat business), proposal specificity (proposals that directly address stated evaluation factors outperform generic proposals), and price competitiveness within 15% of market median (being cheapest doesn't win; being unreasonably expensive loses). Companies that invest in proposal quality and track performance by agency see measurable improvements in win rate over 12–24 months.
| Competition Type | Typical Win Rate Range |
|---|---|
| SDVOSB/WOSB set-aside pool | 8–20% (strong competitors) |
| Small business pool | 4–15% |
| Unrestricted, open competition | 2–8% |
| Repeat agency work (BPA/recompete) | 40–70% (incumbent advantage) |
Tracking and Improving Your Win Rate
Track every RFQ you respond to: the opportunity, your quote price, the awardee, the award price (available in USASpending.gov shortly after award), and whether you received a debriefing. This data reveals patterns — which agencies you win at, which SINs are most competitive, whether your pricing is systematically high or low, and whether your technical approach is competitive. Companies that track this data improve their proposal quality and targeting over time. Those who don't often repeat the same losing patterns.